Global Balanced Income Fund Distributor

The Fund seeks to provide stable, long-term capital appreciation by investing in a diversified portfolio of local and international bonds, equities and other income-generating assets. The Investment Manager shall diversify the assets of the Fund among different assets classes. The manager may invest in both Investment Grade and High Yield bonds rated at the time of investment at least “B-” by S&P, or in bonds determined to be of comparable quality, provided that the Fund may invest up 10% in non-rated bonds, whilst maintain an exposure to direct rated bonds of at least 25% of the value of the Fund. Investments in equities may include but are not limited to dividend- paying securities, equities, exchange traded funds as well as through the use of Collective Investment Schemes.

The Fund is actively managed, not managed by reference to any index.

The Fund is classified under Article 6 of the SFDR meaning that the investments underlying this financial product do not take into account the EU criteria for environmentally sustainable economic activities.

The Investment Manager of the CC High Income Bond Funds – EUR and USD has the duty to ensure that the underlying investments of the funds are well diversified. According to the prospectus, the investment manager has to abide by a number of investment restrictions to safeguard the value of the assets

• We shall invest primarily in a diversified portfolio of listed transferable securities across a wide spectrum of industries and sectors primarily via bonds, equities and eligible ETFs. We may invest in these asset classes either directly or indirectly through UCITS Funds and/ or eligible non UCITS Funds
• We intend to diversify the assets of the Sub-Fund broadly among countries, industries and sectors, but reserve the right to invest a substantial portion of the Sub-Fund’s assets in one or more countries (or regions) if economic and business conditions warrant such investments
• Investments in equity securities may include, but are not limited to, dividend-paying securities, equities, ETFs and preferred shares of global issuers. At our discretion, we may also invest indirectly in equities and equity-related instruments through the use of collective investment schemes. The Sub-Fund will generally, but not exclusively, invest in blue chip issuers listed on Approved Regulated Markets, including equities listed on the Malta Stock Exchange, where applicable
• We shall manage the credit risk and will aim to manage interest rate risk through credit analysis and credit diversity. We may invest in both investment grade (corporate and sovereign) and high yield bonds that have a credit rating of at least “B-” by S&P (or rating equivalent issued by other reputable rating agencies) at the time of investment, provided that the Sub-Fund may invest a maximum of 10% of its assets in non-rated debt securities, including those listed on the Malta Stock Exchange. We will, at all times, maintain an exposure to direct rated bonds, whether investment grade or high yield, of at least 25% of the value of the Sub-Fund
• For temporary or defensive purposes, the Sub-Fund may invest in short-term fixed income instruments, money market funds, cash and cash equivalents. The Sub-Fund may also hold cash and cash equivalents on an ancillary basis or cash management purposes, pending investment in accordance with its Investment Policy and to meet operating expenses and redemption requests. The Sub-Fund may invest in Real Estate Investment Trusts (“REITs”) via UCITS-eligible ETFs and/or CIS and securities related to real assets (including but not limited to real estate, agriculture, and precious metals-related securities) such as equities, bonds, and ETFs as well as CISs as long as these constitute eligible assets under the UCITS Directive
• The Sub-Fund may invest in options, futures and forwards for risk management and hedging purposes only (“Hedging Instruments”)
• Other than any margins required for these Hedging Instruments, the Sub-Fund will not employ leverage

September 2023

Introduction

In September, the conviction in financial markets regarding potential interest rate hikes drove fixed income yields higher and caused a decline in equity markets. The underlying economic conditions seemed to fade as a primary concern, as market momentum clearly shifted towards risk aversion. Despite continued signs of leading macro indicators softening, it can be argued that the global economy is still in relatively good shape compared to initial analyst expectations for the year. This scenario exemplifies how financial markets can sometimes act in complete dissonance to the economic backdrop.

The upward move in yield curves could however derail the current delicate balance in the real economy, as the propensity to lend and leveraging capacity are expected to be impacted in the future, setting up another undesired headwind for economic growth next year. This adds to the challenges faced by consumers, including rising energy prices and diminishing disposable income. However, equity markets appear unfazed, with the recent pullback not indicating significant stress among investors who might still be banking on a soft-landing scenario. The next earnings season which comes, for the first time this year, with expectations of corporate earnings growth compared to last year will be the first reality check of such assumption.

On the monetary front, the Federal Reserve (FED) has paused its rate hikes and signalled fewer rate cuts for the next year, a move widely expected after stating the need for more data to assess the impact on the US economy. Inflation has steadily decreased from its peak in the middle of last year and may reach the FED’s target rate without a significant rise in employment. Meanwhile, in Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) raised interest rates to their highest level since the launch of the euro. Christine Lagarde hinted that rates may have peaked but indicated that borrowing costs would remain high for as long as necessary to bring inflation down to the 2% target.

Equity markets continued their decline from the previous month, with the technology and consumer discretionary sectors unable to limit their losses. However, this doesn’t necessarily compromise the year-to-date performance of major equity indexes, which still show positive returns, in contrast to bonds, which are in a different position. Even though this situation seems to reflect a classic negative correlation between these two asset classes, it remains challenging to provide a fundamental explanation that reconciles the expectations of asset holders. The emergence of a new financial term like the “Magnificent Seven,” encompassing mega-cap stocks such as Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, Meta Platforms, Nvidia, and Tesla, underscores the perception of these particular stocks as safe havens, an idea that was nearly inconceivable just two years ago. Time will tell whether this calls for a revision of financial textbooks or is simply another potential bubble waiting to burst.

Market Environment and Performance

Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) indicators continued to show signs of weakness amid a second successive contraction in services (reading of 48.7 versus the previous month reading of 47.9) and a continuing downturn in the manufacturing sector (reading of 43.4 versus a previous month reading of 43.5). Despite a notable increase in oil prices, the annual inflation rate in the Euro area declined to 4.3% reaching its lowest level since October 2021. Core inflation eased, dropping to 4.5% from 5.3% in the previous month.

In the U.S. aggregate business activity – while still evolving in expansionary territory – nearly stalled due to a weaker expansion in the services sector (reading of 50.2 vs 50.3 in August), and a sustained contraction in manufacturing (reading of 49.8 vs 47.9 in August). Annual inflation rate in the US remained at 3.7% in September, while core consumer prices eased further to 4.1% from the previous 4.3%.

Equity markets continued their summer funk, with September – a historically a challenging month for stocks – noting negative returns. One of the most significant factors contributing to the decline in equities was the surge in Treasury yields, reaching levels not seen in over two decades. This increase in yields placed greater scrutiny on the valuation of technology stocks. The spotlight now shifts to the upcoming earnings season, as it is expected to provide a clearer direction for the markets in the remainder of the year. The S&P 500 index saw a decline of 2.52%, with support coming from value sectors like energy and financials. In Europe, both the EuroStoxx50 and the DAX experienced losses of 2.85% and 3.51%, respectively, with indiscriminate value erosion across various sectors. Credit markets were significantly affected by the higher yields, leading to primarily negative returns, even in traditionally safe assets like government bonds such as U.S. Treasuries. This resulted in negative returns for specific maturity buckets over the course of the year. High-yield bonds displayed more resilience, influenced by expectations of a low default rate.

Fund performance

In the month of September, the CC Global Balanced Income Fund – largely driven by the somewhat negative sentiment across both equity markets and high yield credit – headed lower, registering a loss of 2.24%.

Within the fixed income space, the Manager continued to take opportunity by re-tapping selective names which do offer value, notably, those which have only recently sought to refinance with coupons now more aligned to the current market environment. Also, allowing to increase the portfolio’s duration in a balanced manner. The manager has over the month increased its exposure to United Group; an alternative telecom provider in Southeast Europe that operates both telecommunications platforms and mass media outlets. In the equity portion, the Manager took an exposure in Amazon, Vinci, Caterpillar, and American multinational corporation engaged in hydrocarbon exploration and production Conoco Phillips. This, while reducing its exposure to industrials and cyclicals.

Market and investment outlook

Looking ahead, the Manager maintains a belief in a softening macroeconomic environment that will eventually bring an end to the current cycle of monetary tightening. Even in the face of unexpected spikes in inflation caused by factors such as commodity prices due to geopolitical tensions, the worst-case scenario seems to be a soft landing, where global economic growth slows down but remains positive. Additionally, the Manager anticipates that new rounds of economic stimulus in the Chinese economy will likely support local consumers and indirectly benefit the global economy. The recent movements in fixed income markets are viewed as an overshoot, which could lead to a more promising performance in equity markets toward the end of the year. In addition to the standard focus on sectors and companies with strong cash flows and attractive valuation metrics, there will be an increased emphasis on mega-cap and technology companies that could benefit from a decrease in bond yields. The unusual market volatility observed over the past three years can be attributed to the negative aftermath of the pandemic era. Hence, the word ‘patience’ should resonate with investors, considering historical trends that ultimately indicate a positive outcome.